Retirement calculator
Will your money last? Projects your savings to retirement and through it, with Social Security, pensions, inflation and taxes, then tests the plan against 1,000 simulated markets so you see the odds, not just one hopeful line.
Quick answer: A 40-year-old with $150,000 saved who adds $20,000 a year has about $1,041,304 in today's dollars at 65. Spending $55,000 a year with $24,000 of Social Security from 67, the money lasts to 95 at a steady 7% return before retirement and 5% after, and lasts in 42% of 1,000 simulated markets.
By John Crane, MBA & the Editorial Team · Updated for the 2026 tax year. How we check our numbers
Chance your money lasts to 95
Simulating
In 1,000 simulated markets. At steady returns, money lasts: past 95. The bar splits your balance at 65 in today's dollars.
| Saved so far | $150,000 | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|
| Future saving | $481,974 | 46.3% |
| Growth to retirement | $409,329 | 39.3% |
- Balance at 65, today's dollars
- $1,041,304
- $2,607,555 in 2051 dollars
- First-year withdrawal, today's dollars
- $60,247
- $156,508 in 2051 dollars
- You will save, today's dollars
- $481,974
- Contributions from now until you retire
- Money lasts (steady)
- Past 95
- Bad case at 95, today's dollars
- ...
- Balance left in the worst 10% of markets
- Extra saving for 85% odds
- Working...
Range of outcomes
Today's dollarsYear by year (steady returns)
| Age | Saved | Withdrawn | Income | Balance | Today's dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | $20,000 | - | - | $180,500 | $173,993 |
| 41 | $20,748 | - | - | $213,883 | $198,739 |
| 42 | $21,524 | - | - | $250,379 | $224,264 |
| 43 | $22,329 | - | - | $290,234 | $250,590 |
| 44 | $23,164 | - | - | $333,715 | $277,744 |
| 45 | $24,030 | - | - | $381,105 | $305,751 |
| 46 | $24,929 | - | - | $432,712 | $334,638 |
| 47 | $25,862 | - | - | $488,863 | $364,433 |
| 48 | $26,829 | - | - | $549,912 | $395,164 |
| 49 | $27,832 | - | - | $616,238 | $426,861 |
How this is calculated
The plan
All amounts are in today's dollars and rise with inflation. Each working year your savings grow, then the year's contribution is added. Each retirement year, enough is withdrawn to cover spending not met by Social Security and other income, grossed up for tax.
Simulated markets
Return each year: lognormal with your average and volatility
1,000 runs draw a different return for every year, with the same long-run average as your input. The success rate is the share of runs where money lasts to your plan age. Results are seeded, so they do not change unless your inputs do.
Why the odds can be lower than the line
A steady return hides the order of returns. Losses early in retirement force selling at low prices, so a plan that works at an average return can still fail in many markets. That risk is what the simulation measures.
Sources
Related guides
- 2026 401(k) limits and how much your match is worthThe 2026 contribution limits, catch-up rules at 50 and 60 to 63, how employer matches work, and what contributing enough to get the full match adds up to.
- Which states tax Social Security benefits in 2026?The states that still tax Social Security, their exemptions and income limits, what a typical retiree pays in each, and how federal tax on benefits works.
- How to forecast your net worthAdd up what you own and owe, then project it year by year in today's dollars: saving, growth, taxes and the life events that move it most, and your rank.
Questions
What success rate should I aim for?
Many planners target 80% to 90%. Higher is safer but may mean saving more or spending less than you need to; lower relies on markets cooperating or on cutting spending in bad years.
Is the 4% rule still safe?
The 4% rule withdraws 4% of your starting balance, then raises it with inflation. Choose it under Withdrawals to see how it holds up with your returns, taxes, retirement length and Social Security.
How does retirement age change the outcome?
Working longer adds savings, adds growth and shortens the years you draw down. Open Retirement age to compare 62, 65, 67 and 70 side by side.